(OPINION)
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Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike inside Russia
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Who violated the Minsk Agreements?
The Minsk Agreements were designed to de-escalate the conflict in eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists, primarily in the Donbas region. However, violations were reported by both sides over the years, and no clear resolution was achieved before the agreements effectively became obsolete.
Key Violators:
1. Pro-Russian Separatists:
- Regularly violated ceasefires by engaging in attacks against Ukrainian forces.
- Established and maintained self-declared "republics" (Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics), contrary to the agreements.
2. Russia:
- Accused of supporting the separatists with weapons, fighters, and logistical aid, undermining the agreements.
- Failed to withdraw forces or influence separatists to comply with ceasefire conditions.
3. Ukraine:
- Accused of not fully implementing political reforms or granting the level of autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk regions as stipulated.
- Continued military actions in contested areas.
The Minsk Agreements (2014 and 2015) ultimately failed due to mutual distrust, lack of enforcement mechanisms, and incompatible goals between the parties involved. The situation escalated further with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, effectively ending any relevance of the agreements.
What Role, If Any, Did The United States Play In The Failure of The Minsk Agreements?
The United States was not a direct party to the Minsk Agreements, which were brokered by the Normandy Format group (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France). However, the U.S. indirectly influenced the situation through its broader policies and actions regarding the conflict in Ukraine. While it did not formally obstruct the Minsk process, certain U.S. actions have been interpreted as contributing to the agreements' failure:
U.S. Support for Ukraine:
1. Military Assistance:
- The U.S. provided military aid to Ukraine, including non-lethal equipment and, later, more advanced weapons such as Javelin anti-tank missiles.
- This support was seen by Russia as emboldening Ukraine to resist making concessions, which were key elements of the Minsk agreements.
2. Sanctions on Russia:
- The U.S. imposed heavy economic sanctions on Russia following its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and involvement in the Donbas conflict.
- Russia argued that the sanctions created a hostile environment, making negotiations under Minsk less viable.
3. Diplomatic Support:
- The U.S. consistently backed Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, pressuring Ukraine not to concede too much to Russia or the separatists.
- This stance may have reinforced Ukraine's reluctance to implement provisions such as granting autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russia’s View:
Russia frequently criticized the U.S. for its involvement in Ukraine, claiming that American support encouraged Ukraine to pursue a military solution rather than fully implementing the Minsk Agreements' political aspects, such as constitutional reforms and autonomy for the separatist regions.
Limited Direct Involvement:
While the U.S. supported Ukraine diplomatically and militarily, its influence over the Minsk Agreements themselves was limited. The agreements failed primarily because of deep mistrust and conflicting objectives between Ukraine and Russia, as well as violations by both sides.
Conclusion:
The U.S. played a secondary role in the Minsk Agreements' context. While its policies and support for Ukraine may have indirectly influenced the dynamics, the primary responsibility for the agreements' failure lies with the direct parties: Ukraine, Russia, and the separatists.
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